Tuesday, September 30, 2008

another good op ed in the WSJ

The Beltway Crash
Congress lives up to its 10% approval rating.

America has survived a feckless political class in the past, and it will again after this week. But Monday's crash and burn of the Paulson plan on Capitol Hill reveals a Washington elite that has earned every bit of the disdain that Americans have for it. This crowd can't even make sausage.
AP
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ( D-Calif.) with Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) Monday, Sept. 29, 2008.
The 228-205 defeat reflects badly on all concerned, starting with the Democrats who run the House. The majority party is responsible for assembling a majority vote, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi failed in that fundamental task.
Her highly partisan speech on the floor -- blaming "right-wing ideology of anything goes, no supervision, no discipline, no regulation" for the financial distress -- is no excuse for Republicans to vote no. But it is indicative of the way she has governed for the past two years -- like Tom DeLay without the charm. The cynics are saying Ms. Pelosi deliberately tanked the bill by giving 95 Democrats a pass, knowing failure would hurt John McCain, and given her track record we can see why people would believe it.
House Republicans share the blame, and not only because they opposed the bill by about two-to-one, 133-65. Their immediate response was to say that many of their Members turned against the bill at the last minute because Ms. Pelosi gave her nasty speech. So they are saying that Republicans chose to oppose something they think is in the national interest merely because of a partisan slight. Thank heaven these guys weren't at Valley Forge.
The vote is also a rebuke for Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, who could barely explain how his securities auctions would work even as he showed disdain for House Republicans. President Bush did his best to provide cover for the Members, but he is a spent political force. One GOP Member who supported the bill told us that before Mr. Paulson spoke to House Republicans last week, the whip count in favor was about 70; afterwards, it was closer to 20. You can't ask Congress for $700 billion without more modesty and a better explanation for how it would be used.
Given this historic abdication, we're surprised financial markets didn't melt down more than they did yesterday. Equities nonetheless took the worst bath in percentage terms since the aftermath of 9/11, with the Nasdaq falling more than 9%. But that was a sideshow compared to the credit markets, which staged another flight from all risk. The three-month Treasury yield had sunk to 0.132% the last we checked, which means investors will accept essentially no return as long as they can avoid further financial losses.
Safe in their think-tanks, some of our friends have claimed that talk of a financial crash is merely a political invention. Perhaps we'll now test their theory. A financial panic isn't an academic seminar, and a flight from all risk isn't something any free-marketeer should want. A recession now seems certain, as falling commodity prices are telling us, but the point is to prevent systemic financial collapse. Maybe the Members who voted "no" figure at least they'd still have jobs.
What next? One option is that Democrats will tell Mr. Paulson that they can pass his plan with more liberal votes, but that their price has gone up. This would mean more of the tax, spend and regulate provisions that House GOP leaders stripped out before their rank-and-file headed for the exits. These would only raise the price for taxpayers of the Treasury rescue and, if the equity provisions were too onerous, make the Paulson plan far less workable.
If Mr. Paulson wants to be a statesman, he could offer a Plan B that avoids giving Treasury such a big blank check. Instead, he could propose more public capital for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which would do more of the creative financial plumbing it has done over the last week. (See here.) This will have to happen next year anyway, and the FDIC has long experience protecting taxpayers for public capital injections through preferred stock and warrants.
At the same time, the Secretary could salvage his own proposal by promising that while Treasury would start the purchase of toxic securities from banks, he would quickly (within weeks) turn the process over to a new and separate resolution agency. Congress could make this part of the legislation. This would remove Mr. Paulson as the political lightning rod he has become, and also give the rescue process the political insulation it needs. Such an agency could also work closely with the FDIC to protect taxpayers.
Members may not believe Hank Paulson, but they ought to pay attention to markets. The financial system has a huge capital hole due to losses on mortgage securities and other assets, and private capital won't begin to fill it without the life preserver of public capital. Before it leaves town to campaign, Congress needs to act to defend and restabilize the financial system. After the last two weeks, and especially after yesterday, the Members also need to act to redeem their own reputations, to the extent they are still worth redeeming.
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Crash Course
A Main Street Rescue 09/29/08 -- Congress passed this 'bailout' a long time ago.
The Washington Panic 09/27/08 -- The Paulson plan is a tool to avoid a deeper downturn.
The Paulson Sale 09/24/08 -- Taxpayers are going to put up capital one way or another.
A Mortgage Fable 09/22/08 -- Beltway trilogy: the Fed, Fannie Mae, and Bear Stearns.
Stopping the Panic 09/20/08 – Now the task is to protect taxpayers and restore markets.
Be It Resolved 09/19/08 – Paulson and Bernanke ask Congress for a resolution agency.
The Fed and AIG 09/18/08 – Nationalizations aren't stopping the financial panic.
McCain and the Markets 09/17/08 – Denouncing 'greed' and Wall Street isn't a growth agenda.
The Fed's Epic Day 09/17/08 – It's only fair to praise the central bank when it does the right thing.
Surviving the Panic 09/16/08 – A resolution agency, steady monetary policy, and a big tax cut.
Wall Street Reckoning 09/15/08 – Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's refusal to blink won't get any second guessing from us.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Greed

I don't really have the words or stomach to blog about the financial situation and the economy, but from what I can see we are in this mess because of greed. Downright sinful greed. People began taking on more debt than they could really afford because of their want for "more" and people in the financial sector out of their desire to want "more" took the opportunity to profit from it. It's disgusting. The greed and the consequences are like a cancer---it spreads.

Proverbs 28:25 A greedy man stirs up dissension, but he who trusts in the LORD will prosper. 26 He who trusts in himself is a fool, but he who walks in wisdom is kept safe.

Jesus said in Luke 12: 15 He said to them, "Watch out! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; a man's life does not consist in the abundance of his possessions."

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

a "don't panic" analysis from the WSJ

I thought this was a great Op Ed.


REVIEW & OUTLOOK (Editorial)
Surviving the Panic
1332 words
16 September 2008
The Wall Street Journal
A24
English
(Copyright (c) 2008, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
We're happy to report that the world didn't end yesterday, though sometimes it was hard to tell. A major Wall Street banking house filed for bankruptcy, the taxpayers didn't come to the rescue, and financial markets lurched but didn't crash. Amid the current panic, this is a salutary lesson that our fate is in our own hands and that a deeper downturn is far from inevitable.

The immediate priority is to calm markets and prevent a crash, and to do so it helps to recall how we got here. We are not living through some "crisis of capitalism," unless policy blunders make it so. Nor is this largely the fault of the Bush Administration, as Barack Obama claims, or of some lack of regulation, as John McCain asserts. These politically convenient riffs do nothing to reassure the public.

The current panic is the ugly aftermath of the credit mania that took flight in the middle years of this decade. As students of economic historian Charles Kindleberger know ("Panics, Manias, and Crashes"), financial manias throughout history have shared one trait: the excessive expansion of credit. This bubble was no different.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long, creating a subsidy for debt and a global commodity price spike. The excess liquidity and capital flows this spurred became the fuel for the wizards on Wall Street and in mortgage-finance who created new financial instruments that in turn fueled the housing bubble. As long as it lasted, nearly everyone inhaled the euphoria of rising asset prices and soaring profits. Normal risk assessment gave way to the excesses that always attend manias.
Enter the panic stage, or the great deleveraging that began some 13 months ago. Fear now trumps greed, while the short-seller and cash are kings. The core of our financial problem, as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said yesterday, is that these mortgage instruments are underpinned by real-estate assets whose value keeps declining. Until home prices stabilize, no one knows how large the losses will be. Thus no one is sure which financial companies are truly endangered, or how many.

Amid this turmoil and uncertainty, the challenge for policy makers is twofold: Protect the overall financial system from the fallout of individual bank failures, and protect the larger economy from recession caused by financial distress. They each require different policy levers.

On the finance side, there has already been much progress, albeit not enough. The banking system is reforming itself right before our eyes, without the advice of Congress or new regulation. The days of banks running with leverage at 30 or 40 to 1 are over. The companies that took those risks have either failed (Bear Stearns, Lehman) or been absorbed by others (Merrill Lynch, Countrywide). The SIVs, CDOs and other exotic creatures have been put back on balance sheets, losses have been taken, and new capital has been raised to absorb those losses. We are moving to a sturdier system.

On that score, Lehman's bankruptcy filing is another sign of progress. The Treasury and Fed have signaled they can say no. While Lehman's failure has spooked markets, the lesson that a storied investment house can fail without a federal rescue is its own crash course in risk management. The weekend decision by a group of major banks to establish a common fund to borrow against is also hopeful. The banks, which each anted up $7 billion to be part of this private lending fund, realize that acting in concert can serve their self-interest -- a lesson that J.P. Morgan would have applauded in the Panic of 1907.

And yet the financial system will remain fragile as long as asset values keep declining. More major bank failures are a certainty, including some very large ones. That means more Sunday soap operas like this month's, with all of the anxiety that inspires among the public. The longer these melodramas continue, the greater the risk of a recession.

Which leads us to suggest another Resolution Trust Corp. as one more tool to calm financial markets. The first RTC helped to buy, stabilize and liquidate troubled assets amid the savings and loan mess of the late 1980s. Then it blessedly went out of business. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker endorsed an RTC II yesterday in a speech in Naples, Florida, and we suspect the idea will gain more traction. He said he "reluctantly" embraced the idea for "dealing with the market breakdown, breaking the logjam of mortgages and other assets of uncertain value [and] restoring a sense of reasonable valuation and market confidence."

Yes, this would require a Congressional appropriation, and in that sense it would cost taxpayers. But by now it should be clear that some taxpayer money is going to be needed, if only to pay off insured depositors at failing banks. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has already said it may need to borrow from its Treasury line of credit, and that's based on what could be optimistic estimates about home prices.

The taxpayer is also currently at risk through the Fed, which has become ever more creative with its use of the discount window. Its new lending facilities have been necessary amid this crisis, but they have also meant that the Fed is accepting ever-dodgier paper as collateral. Over the weekend it agreed to take non-investment grade paper. The danger is that all of this will put the Fed's own balance sheet at risk -- which would mean even bigger trouble. Better to put this bad mortgage paper on the Treasury side of the federal balance sheet.

Meanwhile, a new RTC would provide a buyer for securities for which there is no market, set a floor under the market, hold the securities until markets stabilize, and liquidate them in an orderly fashion, perhaps at a profit. Failed institutions and managers would not be bailed out. There's always a risk that the politicians will meddle, which is one reason for the Bush Administration to do this now so it can insist on enough political insulation.

As for the larger economy, the last 13 months are a guide to what not to do. The Fed recklessly cut interest rates, while Congress and the White House dropped "rebate" checks from helicopters. The rate cuts ignited another oil and commodity spike that walloped middle-class consumers, while the rebates did nothing to change incentives or lift investment.

We hope the Fed heeds this lesson and holds firm on rates today. Yesterday it injected $70 billion in liquidity to stabilize the fed fund rate at its peg of 2%, as it should in a crisis. But that money can be withdrawn over time as the crisis eases. Meanwhile, a more cautious monetary policy overall will help the dollar, which in turn will mean lower oil prices and more capital flows to the U.S.
What the economy really needs is a big pro-growth tax cut, the kind that will restore confidence and risk-taking. This is an opportunity for both candidates, but especially for Mr. McCain. Instead of focusing on an extension of the Bush tax cuts, the Arizonan should offer his own tax cut to revive capital markets and prevent a recession. Democrats will claim he's helping "the rich," but our guess is that every American who owns a 401(k) will figure he's one of those "rich."

One great lesson of past panics is that they needn't become crashes, if policy makers make the right decisions. Thirteen months into this crisis, the best choices are the same as they were last August: energetic emergency plumbing to protect the financial system, steady monetary policy to defend the dollar, and a tax cut to spur growth. It's also the kind of agenda -- and leadership -- that could win an election.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

hastening the arrival of autumn

Although it seems to have been a rather mild summer...at least in temps, I'm ready for the cooler crisp days of autumn. There's nothing like the blue skies, changing leaves, wind blowing through the trees, and if it's Saturday: the sounds of the Red Coat marching band; it just does something to my mood. It somehow relaxes me. The heat of Atlanta summers can be so stifling so I'm ready for calmer cooler days to prevail. And maybe with it will bring cooler heads and calmer days as we navigate the final weeks of a pivotal election and an economy that is facing a bit of upheaval. Not that autumn promises relief but at least the weather will be more pleasant!

Thursday, September 11, 2008

9.11.01 I will NEVER forget.



My account of my personal very personal experience of being in DC on 9/11. Keep in mind, I remember every bit of the details of the day, but at the time, it was really like an out of body experience.
for reference: I lived 12 blocks from the Capitol and worked in the Rayburn House Office Building. I worked for Congressman Nathan Deal, my roommates Monty Philpot worked for Congressman Saxby Chambliss and Lauren Allgood worked for Vice President Cheney.
###
Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001 started out like any other typical morning waking up and going to work on Capitol Hill as a congressional staffer. Technically we were suppose to be at work by 8:30 but as a veteran legislative assistant, I typically rolled in around 8:45 or 8:50. I was in the car doing my mile commute to the Capitol when I heard the first reports of a plane crashing into the World Trade Center. The radio DJ's were assuming at that point it must have been a small plane scraping the top....

I arrived in my office probably around 8:55 and saw that my coworkers were watching the resulting fire on TV. "Wow, that couldn't have been a small plane!" I thought to myself and commented to my coworkers.

At about 9:01a my mom called to discuss going to the FOX Theatre over Christmas and with my eyes glued to the tv, I said "Mom, turn on the TV, the World Trade Center is on fire!" Literally as those words came out of my mouth, I watched on live television the 2nd highjacked plane crash into the South Tower. I literally couldn't believe what I had just seen. I said "Mom, I have to go!" I ran into my coworker's office who was sitting there staring at the tv with wide open eyes just stunned. I was in the beginning stages of panic, really unsure of what I had just seen. But I knew this was no accident.

At some point within the next half hour, my dad called and told me to leave my building and go home. I told him I was fine and that not to worry, DC is a "no fly" zone. Around 9:45 the cameras at the White House were showing smoke coming from somewhere off in the distance. There were reports of a car bomb at the State Department and they thought the smoke might be coming from the EOEB in the WH complex. My immediate thought was my roommate Lauren. Soon thereafter a staffer from another office came running down the hall telling us that the Pentagon was on fire. They could see if from their office. We would soon find out that it was yet another plane that had crashed into it.

At this point, calls are beginning to not go through, the circuits were overrun. My dad was able to get through to me once more and this time COMMANDED me to leave my building. This time, I listened---although they were not officially evacuating the Capitol complex yet. I called my roommate Monty who worked for another congressman, and told her we were leaving and that I was coming to get her. I said, "don't go anywhere until I come get you!" The last thing I remember doing before leaving my office (before blackberries) was sending an email to my sister and my parents and telling them I loved them and that I was leaving. I really didn't know what was happening. I didn't know what might be coming next. But I knew I wanted to get home. So I just looked at my coworkers and my deputy chief of staff and said "bye."

As I leave my office, it occurs to me that using the elevator is clearly not a good idea, but I don't even know where the stairs are that will get me to the basement! So I have to find those before I can go underground to the Longworth building to get my roommate Monty. I finally make it over to her office and she and her coworker Annie Laurie, by this time Capitol Police are evacuating the buildings. What I would later find out from some of my friends on the force is that they were getting information in their radio that another hijacked planed (flight 93) was headed to Washington. As calm as they appeared to be, you could see the fear in their eyes.

Monty, Annie Laurie and I walk out the door of Longworth at the corner of C ST and New Jersey AVE into a sea of people, all Hill staffers trying to appear calm walking every which way. Everyone is trying to make calls on their cell phones, but nothing is working. No communications with anyone besides those you're standing next to. The 3 of us begin the walk east on C Street. We're walking faster than normal. About the time we are between the back of the Library of Congress, we hear what sounds like a passenger plane flying over.....very low. (Keep in mind, passenger jets don't fly over DC, especially not low) So we start to pick up the pace. Then I hear the engines of a fighter jet. I can't remember if I said it out loud or in my head, but I said "THIS IS IT!" Shortly after the plane passes over head, I hear a very loud BOOM! Well at this point, we and everyone else around us screams and takes off running. We ran for blocks! We didn't know what else to do. We finally made it up to Pennsylvania AVE and were able to look back down and see that the Capitol dome was still in tact, praise God! We didn't know what had happened, but at that point all I could think and pray was "God, you are not surprised right now, You are not surprised." My only peace and comfort in an absolutely terrifying out of control experience was knowing my God, the God of the universe, knew exactly what was going on and He was in control.

Note: the boom we heard we would later discover was the sonic boom of the fighter jet going super sonic and breaking the sound barrier. Because the Pentagon was on fire, they were having to bring in planes landing at Reagan in a different pattern. the planes were being escorted by fighter jets. As soon as the plane landed the fighter jet was dispatched elsewhere at super sonic speeds.

As we crossed Pennsylvania AVE SE to make the trek a few more blocks to our house, the Hill became increasingly quiet and more deserted. by the time we made it to Independence AVE and 12th, we were the only people on the street---cars or pedestrians. It was eerily quiet. Monty and I were so worried about Lauren---How would she get home? Was she ok? had anything happened at the White House? When we walked up the front steps, Lauren opened the door. Monty and I fell into her arms! She had been at the Capitol delivering some letters on behalf of the VP and her car service was able to bring her home. so she had beat us home!
So, the three of us were carless dressed in suits and were wondering what to do next. No one could have imagined what had already happened and we were petrified of what was yet to come. We felt incredibly defenseless. So, we changed our clothes, packed overnight bags, and decided that we wanted to spend the rest of the day in the basement. In our minds, that was the safest place for us to be. So, we got some food, Monty's dog Dixie, our overnight bags, opened up a futon and brought down the TV and spent the rest of the day watching the tragedy and the aftermath unfold on television.

I remember at one point, just literally breaking down and sobbing. It was almost unbearable watching what these terrorists had done to innocent Americans. They wanted us dead.

The days immediately after 9/11 were really hard, I felt a tremendous amount of survivor guilt. However, one of my proudest moments of my life was walking in to my Capitol Hill office on September 12 with my held high and refusing to be scared. I was resolved to do my part to show that WE weren't beat! But it was such a hard week in the days following the attack, I didn't even go to the gym, why should I go exercise when there are people buried in rubble? I also had a tremendous amount of separation anxiety, I did not want to be alone. The next weekend Lauren and I went on a retreat with McLean Bible Church. It was just what I needed. I needed to be out Washington and have some time to worship God. It really was therapeutic.

At the time and even looking back, I am so proud of the President and the actions he took to protect our country. We really are an incredibly blessed nation and are the envy of the world. I'm so thankful that we did not let the evil deeds of that day negatively shake who we are as a nation. UNITED WE STAND!

My heart goes out to the families of those who didn't make it out that day, and also to the families of those whose loved ones were tasked with running in!

Photo credit: KCT September 11, 2008


Monday, September 8, 2008

maybe I need to get out more....

or perhaps the grass is always greener in someone else's backyard, because I can't say as I'm in full agreement with Forbes ranking.....
I mean I guess if you're looking for a guy who drives an SUV or Beemer or has a high-end condo in Buckhead or loves clubbing, then maybe so.......


Atlanta ranked top city for singles
Mon Sep 8, 8:37 AM ET
If you're single and looking for a mate, Atlanta could be the place to live.
The southern U.S. city displaced San Francisco for the top spot and edged past Dallas, Minneapolis and Washington D.C. to be voted the No. 1 city for singles, according to Forbes.com.
"Atlanta got the top spot because of its hopping nightlife, relatively high number of singles and sizzling job growth," Michael Noer, the executive editor of Forbes.com (www.forbes.com) said in a statement.
It was the first time Atlanta was ranked No. 1 in the annual poll that assessed 40 of the largest U.S. urban areas for coolness, cost of living alone, culture, job growth, online dating, nightlife and number of singles.
Seattle, Boston, New York City, Orlando and Phoenix completed the top 10 places in the survey. Jacksonville, Florida, Salt Lake City and Cleveland, were ranked at the bottom of the list of desirable cities for the nation's 74 million single adults.
Chicago was ranked 11th, Miami placed 13th, Los Angeles dropped from third place to 16th this year, and Las Vegas came in 24th in the poll.
Each urban area was assigned a ranking of one to 40 in each of the seven categories. Coolness was gauged by a poll of adults across the country, while rent, the price of move tickets and a six-pack of beer were used to determine cost of living.
Museums, sports facilities and concert venues per capita were assessed to determine culture, while nightlife was based on the number of restaurants, bars and nightclubs in each urban area.
"To those who know 'Hotlanta,' the ranking should come as no surprise," Forbes.com said in a statement, adding the city had been the top 10 in seven of the eight yearly surveys it has conducted.
(Reporting by Patricia Reaney; editing by Matthew Jones)

Sunday, September 7, 2008

How Modern Liberals Think

This is a very articulate commentary/speech/explanation about modern liberalism. Although lengthy, it's worth watching. It is a speech at the Heritage Foundation featuring:Evan SayetWriter, Lecturer and Pundit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaE98w1KZ-c&eurl=http://thebigfeed.blogspot.com/